The latest UFI/BSG report on the tradefair industry in Asia, which tracked regional developments before and during Covid-19 pandemic - has found net space sold is expected to fall from the 24.5m sqm in 2019 down to 6.8m sqm in 2020.
Continuous growth in the region in 2019 was reflected in close to 5% growth of the exhibition space sold by organisers to clients.
The 16th edition of global association of the exhibition industry UFI’s annual report on the tradefair industry in Asia, clearly captured an industry in the midst of an unprecedented global crisis.
The report, compiled in Hong Kong by BSG, covered actual performance of the industry in 2019, as well as forecasts for the years 2020 and 2021.
Overall, BSG estimated that Asia will record an unprecedented 75% drop in net space sold in 2020 compared to 2019 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to BSG the prediction is heavily contingent on the Chinese market pulling through, as it accounts for nearly 60% of net space sold in Asia. Provided China avoids a significant second or third wave of infections, then BSG said the 6.8m sqm sold across the region in 2020 should be achievable.
If China were to return to lockdown, however, the actual results in 2020 would be significantly lower.
Of the large markets in Asia, China is expected to record the strongest performance in 2020 with a drop in net space sold of 65%. Japan, the second largest tradefair market in the region, is expected to see a decline of 75%.
Hong Kong and Singapore are on track to post a 90%+ decline in net space sold in 2020, the survey found.
In 2021, BSG’s forecast for the Asia Pacific region in terms of net space sold is in the range of 50% to 60% of 2019 levels - with China expected to outperform all other markets.
In 2021, China is expected to achieve 70% to 75% of net space sold in 2019 – barring a significant new outbreak of Covid-19, the report added. While Asia’s second largest tradefair market in 2021, Japan, is forecast to record 40% to 50% of space sold in 2019, hampered by the on-going closure of key venues needed for the postponed Olympic games.
UFI Asia/Pacific regional manager and BSG managing director, Mark Cochrane noted that “the forecast for 2021 is particularly challenging due to the long list of potential unknowns, including possible waves of new infections in any market, the timing and severity of government restrictions in each market, travel restrictions, and a number of other factors”.
The research also provided a detailed summary of the industry’s performance in Asia last year. In 2019, across the region, net space sold at Asian tradefairs reached 24.5m sqm, representing an average growth rate of 4.8% across 17 Asian tradefair markets – up from 23.4m sqm in 2018.
On the positive side, investment in venue capacity continues. By the end of 2021, venue capacity in Asia will be 11.8m sqm, and the number of purpose-built exhibition venues operating in Asia will be over 280.
Key markets including India, Korea and China will add capacity. Kai Hattendorf, UFI CEO and managing director, commented: “Our industry is currently navigating the most challenging crisis in its history. In 2020, net space sold will fall by more than 90% in some markets - and a full recovery will not be realised until 2022 or 2023. With that in mind, the data and analysis in this report are more valuable than ever for UFI’s members as they advocate for government support and plan their recovery strategy.”
