Jochen Witt, CEO of management consulting firm jwc, on the state of the world exhibition market, as published in EW's Issue 1 2016.
AFRICA
Africa is moving up the event rankings, according to an American Express study. The continent is diverse geographically, politically and economically, but more than 50 per cent of respondents indicated an increased interest in Africa for events. German organisers Messe Munich and Messe Frankfurt are taking yet another step into East Africa. Messe Frankfurt has entered a joint venture with local organisers to hold Scalex East Africa, a supply chain and logistics trade fair alongside the construction and infrastructure trade fair CIBEX East Africa, Messe Munich has joined CIBEX as cooperation partner.
TURKEY
Political stability, safety and freedom of travel are the foundations of the trade fair business. It is clear that security concerns have surfaced in Turkey. It may therefore not be a coincidence that Messe Hamburg has decided to cancel the SMM Istanbul Conference and Exhibition, due for spring 2016. Turkey remains fundamentally attractive, but will need to solve these problems. Otherwise, we will likely see more of such cancellations. On a more positive note, the city of Istanbul and WTC Istanbul have announced the expansion of Istanbul Expo Center to become one of the biggest venues globally.
IRAN
While conflicts and civil strife continue to beset the region, a new market, Iran, is opening up. With sanctions being lifted, and with 80 million well educated people, the country holds great promise. As the second largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa after Saudi Arabia, it is expected to attract up to US$50bn worth of international investment and fi nance this year. We expect real GDP to rise to around 6.5 per cent per annum this year and again in 2017. Iran has about 40 per cent of the venue capacity in the GCC and is today ranking second after the Emirates in terms of venue capacity.
INDIA
Discussions continue about the necessity for new venue space with international standards. The good news is that BIEC (Bangalore International Exhibition Centre) holds steadfast to its announcement to expand by 35,000sqm over the next two-three years. This will bring capacity over 75,000sqm, making BIEC the leading venue in India, all the more impressive, as elsewhere little has been achieved. So far, the plans for Dwarka do not seem to have advanced much. The Indian government would be well advised to take a look at the venue related activities of the governments and local authorities in China.
CHINA
The trade fair industry in China has seen some exciting developments.The largest venue manager globally is already based in China. With the start of operations at NECC in Shanghai and Hongqiao, CFTC has come very close to the One million sqm mark of gross exhibition space. We also estimate that Chinese Governments, through CFTC, CCPIT and the CCPIT sub councils, may well have already become the largest exhibition organiser globally when measured in net rented sqm. It is therefore no surprise that the city of Shanghai recently announced that it strives to become the ‘global capital of the exhibition industry’.
RUSSIA
Russia is taking hard hits as it struggles with the effects of low oil prices, high inflation, currency devaluation and sanctions. The economy is still too dependent on the oil and gas business. While investment by international oil companies has dropped sharply, and a number of US fracking companies have gone belly-up, Iranian oil will soon be entering the market after the lifting of the sanctions. Because OPEC does not seem to be able to agree on lowering production, we expect oversupply to continue and Russia to stay in recession though 2016. A further decline in all major KPIs of its trade fair business is likely.
