According to almost half of the 173 exhibition companies that responded to UFI’s sixth Global Exhibition Barometer survey in December, the impact of the recession is over. Respondents predicted an increase in turnover for the first time since UFI began the survey. It’s a strong indication that 2011 should be a much better year for the global industry.
Flip the calendar back to January and just eight per cent thought the worst of the recession was behind us. In the space of a year we’re painting a significantly more rosy picture of the exhibition industry’s health.
A key fact to draw from the sixth Barometer survey is that the half of us that doesn’t think the impact of the recession is over, thinks we’ll continue to feel the impact of the recession until well into the second half of 2012. The reason for this is quite simple. They are largely the respondents from Europe and the US, where despite the upswing there is still more road to travel before everyone reports improved performance.
There is a clear geographic divide between the current fortunes of those in the developing markets and those in the mature markets. And ironically, it’s the mature consolidated markets – those that we might have expected to be better protected against economic turbulence – that will wait longest for full stability.
In terms of gross turnover, for the first half of 2011 the percentage of companies declaring an increase varies from 70 per cent for the Americas or Europe to 89 per cent for the Middle East and Africa.
In the Asia Pacific region, accepted as being perhaps the greatest growth area in the international exhibition industry, things are looking up. Turnover in the region, which according to UFI “appeared most strongly hit” in 2008, bottomed out in 2009. However, 74 per cent of respondents experienced an increase in turnover for the first half of 2010 year-on-year, 84 per cent for the second half of 2010, and again, the overwhelming majority of 85 per cent expects this trend to continue into 2011.
Europe and the Americas show a similar, though lessened pattern, with 70 per cent in each region predicting a turnover increase into 2011.
And what about profit? Well the majority of those surveyed in three regions (Americas, Asia/Pacific and Middle East/Africa) registered an increase in profits of more than 10 per cent last year, compared to 2009. Europe has also shown improvement, with most survey participants now expecting “stable” or better operating profits compared with 2009.
So far so good, but the most marked difference in feedback from the respondent regions is clear when the focus shifts to perception of economic crisis. In all regions except Europe, respondents believe the economic impact of the crisis is now over, albeit with significant variation. In the Americas 52 per cent believe they’ve seen the back of it, while the figure is 61 per cent in Asia Pacific and 71 per cent in the Middle East and Africa.
Of course there are plenty of us still anticipating an end to the recession. The average speculative ending date is the last quarter of 2011 for Middle East/Africa, the first quarter of 2012 for Asia Pacific and the second and third quarters of 2012 for Europe and the Americas respectively.
UFI MD Paul Woodward said the results would resonate well with the industry. “I think the fact that the UFI Barometer now shows the majority of respondents in all four regions predicting an increase in turnover for the first time since we started the survey is a good indication that 2011 should be a much better year for the industry worldwide.”
So on a global level, the survey confirms the exhibition industry has now left the depressed business environment of the past two years behind. We’ve returned to strength and hopefully learned a few lessons along the way. Fingers crossed the bankers can do the same.
