Exhibition industry stalwarts have discussed the potential implications for the world following president-elect Donald Trump's appointment.
David Audrain, executive director SISO, told audiences at UFI’s Shanghai Congress that it will be interesting to see who Trump appoints in the Department of Commerce. “This is the first president to own a hotel I think, so that's interesting for our industry. It’s also interesting to reflect on the USA exhibition market in general and ask why it is so big, but the major players are not US-based companies?”
Reflecting on the future for exhibitions, Audrain said the association market, which dominates exhibitions in the USA, looks set to continue this power share, but private exhibitions could slowly recover a larger market portion. “The core majority of the market in the USA don’t travel very far. I think that slowly there will be fewer associations, as more aggressive launches occur from private companies. In another 20 years it might be a 60/40 split, with associations still the dominant force.”
“There’s associations in every market in every state. A lot of the old wood was driven out by the recession,” he added.
Informa’s chief executive Charles McCurdy said that he was surprised by the election result, but added that it was hard to pick apart what it might mean for exhibitions. “The stock markets are volatile, the pundits are confused and it’s hard to gain clarity from the vagueness of the rhetoric from Trump. Translating that into a coherent idea of what may happen is tricky.
“If a 45 per cent tariff was put on China, that would certainly impact on the number of US visitors at Chinese exhibitions, and vice versa. The congress being Republican means TPP is unlikely, but it now looks like it is never going to happen. Tearing up NAFTA (The North American Free Trade Agreement ) is not necessarily a unilateral action, and whether Mexico will be building the wall is unpredictable.”
He added that the US exhibition market has an unusually small number of international visitors. “Mexican and Chinese visitors are on the bad list after Trump’s appointment. It’s difficult to think which of Trump's proposed actions will actually be passed by Congress. Sometimes doing nothing is for the best. If the corporate tax is dropped it would affect the advantage of foreign companies. Tariffs are a dangerous path and I don’t think congress will allow them. It is a real uncertainty but overall, I am not too concerned with the health of the USA, I think the market is strong.”
Meanwhile, the uncertainty of Trump’s appointment was reflected on by UBM’s EVP Tony Calanca. “Elections bring uncertainty, if anyone tells you they know what will happen, my advice is to put your hand on your wallet. Trump’s trade plans probably can’t be done without Congress and they don’t have the appetite for the things he said he’d do. He has some of America’s trading partners a little on edge.”
In the short term, Calanca does not see Trump having a significant impact. “Complain as we might, the States are doing reasonably well, so those countries not doing well are looking for export markets. The peso took a hit, and I think Mexico is very on edge right now, they have the most at stake.”
